Before the release of CPI in the United States, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December was 86.1%. According to CME's "Fed Observation", the probability of the Fed keeping the current interest rate unchanged by December was 13.9%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points was 86.1%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 10.6%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 69.1%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 20.2%.OPEC Monthly Report: The recent steady economic growth trend is still continuing. The OPEC Monthly Report points out that in recent months, the steady economic growth trend is still continuing, especially in the United States, Brazil and Russia. In addition, China's stimulus measures and India's sustained growth momentum have contributed to supporting global economic growth. With these developments, the global economic growth in 2024 is expected to be 3.1%. The strong economic growth momentum is expected to continue until 2025 and is expected to reach 3.0%. However, the healthy growth observed in the United States during 2024 is expected to slow down slightly in 2025. However, the current growth forecast may be affected by the potential new policy measures being discussed by the incoming US government, such as trade tariffs, which will also affect the growth of US trading partner economies. In the euro zone, the recovery will continue gradually in the third quarter of 2024, but the improvement in the fourth quarter and 2025 is expected to be limited. Japan is expected to rebound in the second half of 2024 and continue until 2025, after a challenging period.The Baltic dry bulk freight index continued its decline, dragged down by the decline of all ship sectors. The Baltic dry bulk freight index continued its decline on Wednesday, hitting a 15-month low, dragged down by the decline of all ship types. The Baltic dry bulk freight index fell 50 points to 1106 points, the lowest level since September 2023. The freight index of capes dropped by 126 points to 1,377 points, also hitting the lowest level since September 2023. The average daily profit of Cape ships decreased by 1043 dollars to 11421 dollars. Panama shipping freight index fell 24 points to 1053 points. The average daily profit of Panamax decreased by 213 dollars to 9,478 dollars. The freight index of super-handy ships fell by 5 points to 962 points, the lowest level since August 2023.
Traders increased their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut. After the CPI report was released, swap traders increased their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut before the end of 2025. They now predict that by that time, they will cut interest rates by 87 basis points, which means that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week. In 2025, there will be another two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each time, which is less than the four times proposed by Fed officials in the latest quarterly bitmap in September.Apple introduced Siri with ChatGPT, and on Wednesday, Apple released software updates for iPhone, iPad and Mac, including Siri with ChatGPT. This is also a major victory for OpenAI, because it shows its most important products to millions of iPhone users.Syrian opposition forces: Damascus curfew lifted, demanding people to return to work.
STOXX Europe 600 Index rose by 0.25% after the US CPI data was released.Shuang Jie Electric: The controlling shareholder, actual controller and their concerted actions terminated the agreement to transfer part of the company's shares. Shuang Jie Electric announced that the controlling shareholder, actual controller Zhao Zhihong and their concerted actions Zhao Zhixing and Zhao Zhihao reached an agreement with Hangzhou Yingxin Enterprise Management Partnership (Limited Partnership) on the termination of the agreement to transfer part of the company's shares, and signed the Agreement on the Dissolution of the Share Transfer Agreement. According to the information previously disclosed, Zhao Zhihong, Zhao Zhixing and Zhao Zhihao intend to transfer 54 million shares of the company's unrestricted shares to Hangzhou Yingxin by agreement transfer, accounting for 6.76% of the company's total share capital. Due to the change of objective conditions, both parties decided to terminate the transfer of this share agreement, and they will not be liable for breach of contract.Analyst Anstey: Today's CPI data will hardly change anyone's prospects. However, those who still think that the Fed will remain inactive next week may reconsider, because inflation is not worse than expected. This seems to give the green light to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 18th.
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide
12-14
Strategy guide